Overtime Ireland

Don’t @ Me – Week 10 NFL Picks


Enjoying the NFL season? Is Fantasy Football just not enough excitement anymore? Well you have come to the right place. Here at “Don’t @ Me” we see ourselves as financial advisers, looking to help you to diversify your portfolio, and allocate your capital wisely in order to maximize profits for shareholders. In other words, I’m going to attempt to pick some winning wagers, in this, my week 10 NFL picks.

All odds/spreads are accurate as of 10th November 2017. And as always, if you were foolish enough to part with cash listening to this advice, don’t @ me.

In last weeks article I ran through my numbers for the first half of the season. I had said if you had placed a €20 bet on every single one of my picks so far this season, you’d have yourself a profit of €132. Not bad, I guess. I had joked on twitter that due to this profit that you should quit your job, and follow my picks for a living. Well I hope you heeded my advice, because last week I recorded my third 3-0 week of the season. The Rams easily covered the 3.5 point handicap in their blow out of the New York Giants. After an early 10 point deficit, Cam Newton and the Panthers steadied the ship and defeated NFC South rival Falcons. And finally, my shoe in of the week Dallas Cowboys defeated the Chiefs in the JerryDome, despite one of the worst Hail Mary defences of all time to end the first half. Those three picks pay out at just over 6.5/1, meaning a €20 treble would return just over €149. So with that said, hand in your notice to your boss, and welcome to Don’t @ Me. Here’s the week 10 picks.

Season Record: 19-8 (.704)

Shoe in of the Week: 7-2 (.778)

LA Chargers +3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (1/1)

Philip Rivers and the LA Chargers return after their bye week, going up against a Jacksonville side that is currently on a rare two game winning streak. Winning 3 of their last 4 games before the bye, LA have put themselves back in playoff contention after a horrendous 0-4 start. The Chargers are coming off a loss to the Patriots, however the Chargers had a chance to win the game at the end, and it would have been a little too close for comfort for Belichick and Brady. Although Jacksonville have the top-rated defence in the league, the Jags have struggled to defend the run this season, giving up 125 yards rushing yards per game so far in 2017. If the Chargers can get Melvin Gordon involved early (currently averaging 4.0 yards per attempt) they can keep it close and at least cover. Philip Rivers brings a regular season record of 6-1 against the Jags, winning all of his last 6 meetings with the Florida side. Plus, if the team of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa can get to Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles, they can really make the Jags become a one dimensional team, with the Jags losing all three games so far this season in which Bortles has passed for less than 250 yards.

Chicago Bears -5.5 over Green Bay Packers (20/23)

If I had imagined seeing me typing this in August, I would have assumed that I had been writing this column from a mental institution. However, without QB Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers are a below average team, losing all three of their games since the former MVP picked up a broken collar bone in week 6. Rodgers replacement, Brett Hundley has been ineffective since taking up the starting job, throwing for only 1 touchdown and 4 INTS. Now he must guide the Packers to Soldier Field to pay a Chicago team that has already equaled its wins total from 2016, and are owners of the eighth best defence in the league. Chicago’s strength so far has been its rushing attack, which behind running back Jordan Howard has allowed the Bears to be somewhat successful so far this season. Jordan Howard will be eyeing a big game against a Packers team that is below average in defending the run (118 yards per game), and look to take the pressure off rookie QB Mitch Trubisky, who is making his first start in this storied rivalry.

And now its time for the Shoe in of the Week…

New England Patriots -7.5 over Denver Broncos (21/20)

As a Broncos fan, I have been tested in the most unimaginable way over this 5 game losing streak, with last weeks humiliating loss to the Eagles being the latest in a series of uninspiring offensive performances. I think Denvers offensive woes can be best summed up in one poignant statement: BROCK OSWEILER IS STARTING AT QB. Yes, this once 3-0 team is now starting a QB who even the Browns said, “Na, we’re good” to. They are now going up against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick coming, who, I’m sure you know, are quite good coming off a bye. As a Broncos fan of many years now, the annual clash with New England is the week I circle before the season begins and say, “this will test my patience”. I think my frustrations were at a tipping point right about…. Here? Yes, Tom Brady punting on third down in a playoff game really does sum it up. Take it from me, a bitter, bitter Broncos fan, the Patriots will cover this week. Shoe In.

This OTI piece was written by Sean Keown. Sean is a Denver Broncos fan from Co Down, and is currently studying at Queens’ University Belfast. Sean can be found on twitter at @sean__keown

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