Overtime Ireland

Don’t @ Me – Week 14 NFL Picks

NFL-Betting-Systems

Enjoying the NFL season? Is Fantasy Football just not enough excitement anymore? Well you have come to the right place. Here at “Don’t @ Me” we see ourselves as financial advisers, looking to help you to diversify your portfolio, and allocate your capital wisely in order to maximize profits for shareholders. In other words, I’m going to attempt to pick some winning wagers, in this, my week 14 NFL picks.

All odds/spreads are accurate as of 8th December 2017. And as always, if you were foolish enough to part with cash listening to this advice, don’t @ me.

A little bit of a recovery for me in week 13, after the catastrophe that was week 12. The Vikings continued to cement themselves as a legitimate Super Bowl threat, limiting Julio Jones to just 24 receiving yards and the Atlanta offense to just 9 total points in their own building. The Shoe in of the Week got back to winning ways after the streak was ended in week 12, with the Seattle Seahawks shrugging aside the 5.5 points the bookies were giving them and defeating the Philadelphia Eagles outright, and making a race of the NFC West title this year. However the Pittsburgh Steelers let me down on the week, after requiring a 4th quarter comeback to defeat AFC North rival Cincinnati Bengals in one of the most gruesome games in recent memories. With that, on to my week 14 picks. Just a short one this week folks, as my university deadlines are applying more pressure on me than my bookie on a Monday morning.

Season Record: 24-14-1 (.615)

Shoe in of the Week: 10-3 (.769)

Cleveland Browns +3.5 over Green Bay Packers (4/5):

Ok so I don’t totally agree with this line and I think the Browns should be getting a little bit more. However, these are two teams that are under different kinds of pressure: the Browns trying to avoid being the 2nd team ever to go 0-16, and the Packers trying to make it into an NFC wildcard spot that is super competitive. However, the Packers are a difficult team to predict with Brett Hundley under centre, and last week despite the victory, Hundley only throwing for 84 yards in what was essentially FIVE quarters (FYI: that’s not good) and a 48.3 passer rating (FYI: that’s not good either). The Packers offense has been reliant on the run, which will be difficult against the Browns surprisingly stout run defence (ranked 6th in terms of rushing yards allowed per game). If the Packers fail to get the running game going then that will put the ball in the hands of Hundley, which will mean Browns star cornerback Jason McCourtey will be licking his chops. Despite the Browns being winless so far, they’ve racked up something way more valuable: moral victories (oh wait, those don’t count in the standings…). Oh well, the Browns looked competent against the LA Chargers in week 12, and with any luck the Browns will put in a good performance this week, and win elevating Hue Jacksons winning percentage in Cleveland to the dizzying highs of .069. Yikes.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (10/11):

“I’ve really never studied or played against Russell Wilson,” said Doug Marrone in his presser this week, and that’s all I had to hear. Wilson has put in a herculean effort to salvage this banged up Seahawks roster, keeping them in a wildcard spot, and defeating the heavily favoured Philadelphia Eagles who were on a 9-0 run before Sunday Night Football. Every week I look at the betting lines and Jacksonville always catch my eye, but I haven’t taken them once all year. And there’s one simple reason for that. I don’t trust them whatsoever. I actually really like Blake Bortles, he seems like a nice guy and has a sense of humour superior to most starting NFL QB’s, but he just isn’t a playoff standard QB. I don’t think the Jags will command much of a home field advantage, and expect this to be a low scoring game. There’s one thing that Vegas can’t factor into their lines, and that’s Russell Wilson in the 4th quarter, as he can do anything. And I mean anything. The Seahawks are an all time “no-one believes in us” type of team and expect them to echo that sentiment going in as an underdog in week 14. Take the points.

And now its time for the Shoe in of the Week…

LA Rams -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (1/1):

From one NFC West team to another, the LA Rams receive the coveted Shoe in of the Week honours this week. I picked against the Eagles last week and I’m doing it again this week, for pretty much the same reason: the Eagles haven’t had that quality victory thus far in the season. Last week they had the opportunity to, and got beaten convincingly by Seattle. Another long flight east to west for Philly, and going up against a Rams team that is highly motivated to keep winning, with the Seahawks breathing down their necks in the standings of the NFC West. With Eagles QB Carson Wentz’ favourite target Zack Ertz’ status unclear for this game on Sunday, I like the Rams to put up some points on this Philly team, and that’s why I’m making them my Shoe in of the Week.

This OTI piece was written by Sean Keown. Sean is a Denver Broncos fan from Co Down, and is currently studying at Queens’ University Belfast. Sean can be found on twitter at @sean__keown

 


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