Overtime Ireland

Don’t @ Me – Week 4 NFL Picks

NFL-Betting-Systems

Enjoying the NFL season? Is Fantasy Football just not enough excitement anymore? Well you have come to the right place. Here at “Don’t @ Me” we see ourselves as financial advisers, looking to help you to diversify your portfolio, and allocate your capital wisely in order to maximize profits for shareholders. In other words, I’m going to attempt to pick some winning wagers, in this, my week 4 NFL picks.

All odds/spreads are accurate as of 28th September 2017. And as always, if you were foolish enough to part with cash listening to this advice, don’t @ me.

Do you like your football with a side of politics? Do you like close games? Well then week 3 was for you. But the main reason week 3 was something to behold was I went 3-0 in my picks last week, and you surely took heed of my advice? Right? How could you not with such solid advice as picking the 0-2 Bears over the 2-0 Steelers, despite one of the most boneheaded plays in recent memory. The Indianapolis Colts trumped (get it?) the Browns (the home underdog was 9-2 in week 3) to get their first victory of the season, and it only took one of the wackiest endings of a game to help the Atlanta Flacons squeak past the 3-point spread to defeat the Lions 30-26. No sweat. Never in doubt. But that’s enough dwelling on the past. Take a knee, and lets get on to week 4’s picks.

Season Record: 6-3 (.667)

Shoe in of the Week: 2-1 (.667)

Baltimore Ravens +3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (20/23)

The home underdog served us so well last week that I have decided to roll with it again. Although the Ravens and Joe Flacco are coming off one of the worst performances in recent team history, Pittsburgh didn’t exactly light it up in an overtime loss to the Bears. 12 of the last 18 matchups between these AFC North rivals has been decided by 3 points or less, with Pittsburgh not winning in Baltimore since 2012. Pittsburgh was susceptible to the run against the Bears and indeed all season, so hopefully here the Ravens 4th ranked rushing attack with Buck Allen, Terrance West and Alex Collins, can help Joe Flacco and the passing game. Take the points and hope that week 3 acts as a wake up call for Joe Flacco and this Ravens offense.

Buffalo Bills +8 over Atlanta Falcons (20/23)

The Falcons will look to start the season 4-0, however they’ve got the number one defense in football through three weeks of the season, with the Bills only giving up 12.3 points per game. If we’re being honest, the Falcons have been very lucky to get off to their hot start, and are arguably 2 plays away from being 1-2 on the season. The difference in this game will be how Buffalos offense looks. Currently ranked 25th in points per game, Buffalo did look much improved in week 3, putting up 26 points against a talented Broncos defense. Matty Ice threw 3 interceptions last week in Detroit, and will want to avoid that against a Buffalo defense that picked off Trevor Siemian twice last week. Atlanta hasn’t been exactly blowing teams out this year, and has been winning by an average of 7 points per game so far this season, so lets hope that 8 points is enough to see this game out for Buffalo.


And now its time for the Shoe in of the Week

Tennessee Titans -1.5 over Houston Texans (20/23)

Tennessee’s inability to take care of this matchup cost them their first trip to the post season since 2008. This time however, I trust that a maturing Marcus Mariota and this underrated Titans offense can get the job down in Houston and earn week 4 Shoe in of the Week honors. The Titans put up 420 yards and 33 points against the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle, and the week before put up 390 yards and 37 points against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. The Titans have clearly shown that they can put up points against great defenses on the road, and should look to take advantage of a defense that was carved up by Tom Brady and the Patriots in week 3. Rookie DeShaun Watson did look good in week 3, however this was against a Patriots team that is ranked last in total defense so far this season. Look for this Tennessee team to make the leap and stake a claim to the wide open AFC South.

This OTI piece was written by Sean Keown. Sean is a Denver Broncos fan from Co Down, and is currently studying at Queens’ University Belfast. Sean can be found on twitter at @sean__keown    

 


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