Overtime Ireland

Don’t @ Me – Week 5 NFL Picks


Enjoying the NFL season? Is Fantasy Football just not enough excitement anymore? Well you have come to the right place. Here at “Don’t @ Me” we see ourselves as financial advisers, looking to help you to diversify your portfolio, and allocate your capital wisely in order to maximize profits for shareholders. In other words, I’m going to attempt to pick some winning wagers, in this, my week 5 NFL picks.

All odds/spreads are accurate as of 4th October 2017. And as always, if you were foolish enough to part with cash listening to this advice, don’t @ me.

Off the heels of a 3-0, I went in to week 4 full of confidence, ready to repeat the previous weeks success. Could Sean go 6-0? Did he actually know what he was talking about? I answered those questions in week 4, with a resounding “ABSOLUTELY NOT”. I learnt a lot of valuable lessons in week 4. In retrospect, a quarter in to the season, I should have known better than to take Joe “not so elite” Flacco and the anemic Ravens offense. I also should have known better than after years and years of irrelevance, taking the Titans on the road to a division rival was not the smartest idea. In fact, the less said about my Shoe in of the Week the better. But I admit when I’m wrong, and I apologize to the Don’t @ me faithful. And now, to you, the 12 people who read this article, I vow to never again make those mistakes again. I will never pick this Ravens team again and I will never take the Titans when playing an AFC South team. I promise. Hold me to it. Bills +8 salvaged the week from “total disaster” to “embarrassment”, leaving me 1-2 in week 4. But onward, and hopefully upwards!

One quick note I noticed before writing this article, if you combine the record of the top five QBs in total passing yards (Patriots, Cardinals, Packers, Saints and Giants) you get 9-11 (.450). Meanwhile if you combine the records of the top five rushers in the league (Chiefs, Rams, Vikings, Broncos, Steelers) you get a record of 15-5 (.750). This probably means that the passing teams are falling behind and have to pass the ball more in order to keep up, but it’s just something to keep track of going forward.

Season Record: 7-5 (.583)

Shoe in of the Week: 2-2 (.500)

Seattle Seahawks +1 over LA Rams (20/21)

I’m a huge fan of this Rams team. Millennial wonder Sean McVay has taken this Rams offense from the dumpster fire Jeff Fisher had left it in, to the highest scoring offense in the league at the quarter mark of the season. However, I think they are getting too much praise so far this year. Yes they beat Dallas in the Jerry Dome, but it took 7 field goals against a weak Cowboys secondary that was also missing defensive leader Sean Lee. The Seahawks survived a 1st half scare against the Colts, but have to be feeling confident coming off a 36 point second half performance on Sunday Night Football. Former USC coach Pete Carroll returns to the LA Coliseum for this NFC West showdown, and I give the Seahawks who have dominated this division for years the edge. The last time these teams met (albeit under very different circumstances) it ended in a 24-3 Seattle victory, and although these two squads split the season series last year, the Rams did not score a touchdown in either game. Despite Wade Philips best efforts, this Rams defense is still giving up over 26 points per game, while facing Scott Tolzien/Philip Dorsett, Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott. Look for Russell Wilson to take this game on, looking to assert dominance in the NFC West once again.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 over Houston Texans (20/23)

If you cast your memory back to week one, the Jacksonville Jaguars ran all over the Houston Texans, rushing for 155 yards and averaging 4.0 yards per rushing attempt. This shouldn’t bode well for Houston as they face the number one rushing team in the league in the form of Kansas City. Behind rookie of the year favourite and rushing leader Kareem Hunt they have left themselves as the lone undefeated team of the 2017 season. I don’t buy this Houston Texans squad, and I think Watson has been proclaimed the savior of Houston a little prematurely. Watson has looked impressive in the last two weeks, but up against two of the worst defenses in the league, with New England and Tennessee both falling into the bottom three in points per game allowed, and bottom five in passing yards per game allowed. Kansas City on the other hand won’t be quite as easy for the Clemson product, which has already faced and defeated Tom Brady this season. This Kansas City offense is ranked second in the league in total yards, and third in points per game. The most depraved and degenerate gamblers amongst you will know that Kansas City both covered the 7 point spread AND hit the total points over on the final play of the game on Monday Night Football. Lets hope it doesn’t take quite as long for Kansas City and slim line Andy Reid to take care of business on Sunday.

And now its time for the Shoe in of the Week…

Green Bay Packers +2 over Dallas Cowboys (1/1)

After one of the more memorable playoff games in recent memory, the 3-1 Green Bay Packers return to Dallas to face the 2-2 Cowboys, and earn week 5 Shoe in of the Week honors. I am very confident that coming off a long week that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers can take care of business on the road in Big D. This Dallas team does not resemble the 13-3 squad that we saw in 2016, with Ezekiel Elliot experiencing somewhat of a sophomore slump, rushing for 135 yards and 0.8 yards per carry less than he did through 4 games last year. Green Bay leads this rivalry 5-1 since 2010, and has won both of their away contests in that time. Aaron Rodgers is third in passing yards so far this season, and this Dallas secondary can be picked on. Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee has been confirmed as out this Sunday, which also is a huge blow for a Dallas team looking to keep pace with NFC East leaders Philadelphia. Green Bay very much hold the psychological advantage heading into Dallas on Sunday, with Mason Crosby’s 51 yard game winning field goal fresh in the minds of every Cowboys player on the field.

This OTI piece was written by Sean Keown. Sean is a Denver Broncos fan from Co Down, and is currently studying at Queens’ University Belfast. Sean can be found on twitter at @sean__keown

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