OTI Wagers: Week 3 NFL Bets
Oakland Raiders vs Washington Redskins Over 53.5 points – 5/6
The Raiders have looked like a force this season so far with convincing wins over the Titans and the Jets. As mentioned last week, their defense is a bit suspect, conceding 20 against the Jets. Their high-powered offence has generated the most points in the league with 71 so this should be a high scoring affair regardless of the opposition. The 53.5 points being offered is quite a lot but when you analyze the opposition in the Redskins, you see a team that has conceded 50 points which stands as the 6th worst defense in the NFL. The Redskins have looked decent on Offence with regards to points scored. The have played two good Defenses in the Eagles and Rams and have averaged 22 points per game.
Oakland Raiders -3 vs Washington Redskins – 20/23
To continue on from the points made above, the Redskins are a middle of the road team but the Raiders are better in almost every aspect. The points scored should be high but the point’s difference should be much greater than the 3 being offered here. Look for the Raiders to finish in the early forties, a pace that the Redskins shouldn’t be able to match.
Baltimore Ravens -4 vs Jacksonville Jaguars – 20/21
The first thing you have to remember about this game is that it isn’t really a home game for the Jaguars as this is the first game of 2017 to be played in London. The second aspect to remember is that the Ravens have covered the spread in both of their games so far this season. The third thing to remember is that the Ravens have conceded only 10 points across two games so far this year which is the second lowest (excluding the Bucs due to their postponed fixture). The fourth fact about this game is that the Ravens have the second highest points differential (+34) in the NFL.
All of the above points to a tough matchup for the Jaguars whose one victory came over the Texans. The Tom Savage experiment backfired spectacularly early in the game and he was replaced by Deshaun Watson. They then failed at home against the Titans who are a divisional opponent losing 37-16. This isn’t a favorable matchup for the Jaguars, and the -4 spread for the Ravens is very inviting.
Green Bay Packers Over 27.5 points vs Cincinnati Bengals 10/11
The Packers haven’t exactly started fantastically this season. They did have a strong showing against the Seahawks in their first game, but it did show some deficiencies in their Offensive Line. They then faced a resilient Falcons team on the road who have a good young defense and managed to put up 23 points on them.
The Bengals by contrast have looked like the worst team in the NFL through two games with 9 points scored and 33 conceded. They will have to travel to Green Bay which will of course favor the Packers. Whilst I don’t expect that the Bengals will continue to be as uninspiring on offence all season, I would expect the Packers to resume their normal scoring sprees. In their last 4 home regular season games in 2016, they averaged 34 points a game. Those wins came against some of the best defenses in the league; the Texans, Seahawks, Vikings and Giants. Expect the Packers to want to make a statement after losing last week to one of their NFC playoff contenders.7
Denver Broncos -3 vs Buffalo Bills 10/11
This points spread jumped off the page to me when I was reviewing the lines this week. The matchup doesn’t require too much analysis. The Broncos have looked great so far now that they have an Offence that can move the ball with Trevor Siemian having stepped up this season. The Bills’ win came against the hapless Jets but they struggled to move the ball with their Offence devoid of playmakers outside of Shady McCoy.
This really boils down to one of the top teams in the NFL playing against one of the worst teams. The Bills are in rebuilding mode, (not quite at the blatant level that the Jets are) the Broncos have a winning culture throughout their organization and should easily overcome the -3 handicap here.
Hail Mary of the Week
Kansas City Chiefs by 14+ vs LA Chargers 4/1
This is my cheeky bet of the week. A lot of people had the Chargers marked down as a team to watch. They are definitely better on paper than they are last season but they need to overcome the mental aspect of finishing out games.
The Chiefs have been in spectacular form so far, beating the Super Bowl favorite Patriots on the road in Week 1 and a solid win against the Eagles in Week 2. The knock on the Chiefs has always been that they don’t have enough playmakers. However they seem to have addressed this with a rejuvenated Alex Smith, the exciting Tyreek Hill, the man mountain Travis Kelce and the electric rookie Kareem Hunt.
This is more of a punt at 4/1 but the Chiefs look like they have the ability to run up the score on teams and have the second most points in the league scored so far (69). All 69 of those points came against decent defenses that wouldn’t be too dissimilar in talent to the Chargers.
Luke has played and coached American Football for 10 years in Ireland as part of the Cork Admirals. He also writes Patriots related content for musketfire.com and everything NFL on his own blog thelateralviewblog.wordpress.com. You can follow Luke on twitter @lukeobrien21.