Overtime Ireland

Speculating to accumulate

NFL-Football-Betting

The NFL is one of the most interesting sports in the world, as it can be both predictable, and unpredictable.There is no other sport in the world where narratives matter as much, or where it is possible to try and predict a season as accurately.

With this in mind, I took a good long look at Paddy Power’s NFL markets to see if there is any fun to be had, and money to be made. Honestly, I wouldn’t recommend more than a few euro on each of these, no more than 20 in total anyway.

Let’s speculate to accumulate….

Patriots @ 11/2 to win the AFC – No brainer. The defending Super Bowl champions managed to get better this year. Obviously trading for Brandin Cooks and signing a plethora of running backs will help the offence, but they also made moves on the defensive side that would further push them ahead. I think this bet is a dead cert, and wouldn’t put anybody off them @4/1 for the Super Bowl.

Packers @ 5/1 to win the NFC – Unlike the AFC, the NFC is wide open and I can see any number of teams winning it. If the Seahawks O-line was a bit better I would fancy them, but since it is unreliable I am going to give the edge to Green Bay. Rodgers was the best qb in football over the second half of last season (not just biased because I had him @66/1 for mvp, when they were 4-4: so close). And of the other teams I just don’t know who to trust.I think the combination of a Super Bowl hangover and tougher division will mean a lesser Falcons, and even with Zeke missing 6 games for the Cowboys, he was never going to be playing defence: which is what they really need.

Division Specials

The division markets can be interesting, some like the Pats and Packers are obvious, but then there are other ones where money can be made. I like the Titans @ 15/8 for the AFC South, and think the Bengals can cause a surprise in the North now they are healthy, and Big Ben is a constant injury risk with the Steelers, they’re currently 3/1 with Paddy Power.

The way I think I will be getting involved in the divisions will be through accumulators, and I’m about to offer up 3 possible options.

Safe: It might be bland, it might be boring, but it should come up

Patriots @ 1/ 8 for the AFC East

Seahawks @ 3/10 for the NFC West

Titans @ 15/8 for the AFC South – This treble works out at about 3/1

Spicy: The same as the last one but we throw in a saucy Bengals for the North

Patriots @ 1/ 8 for the AFC East

Seahawks @ 3/10 for the NFC West

Titans @ 15/8 for the AFC South

Bengals @ 3/1 for the AFC North – This will work out at about 15/1

Burn the mouth off ye spicy: Might be blinded by Hard Knocks but I am falling in love with this years Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patriots @ 1/ 8 for the AFC East

Seahawks @ 3/10 for the NFC West

Titans @ 15/8 for the AFC South

Bengals @ 3/1 for the AFC North

Buccaneers @ 10/3 for the NFC South – This works out at a lovely 71/1 YOLO

NFL Specials:

Paddy Power also offer some NFL Specials that are certainly interesting. I am more looking at these for bold bets at a bigger price, that if nothing else will give us some fun during the season to follow.

Marcus Mariota @50/1 to be MVP – Why not? The Titans are a much better team this year, and Mariota has certainly flashed in the preseason, showing no ill effects from his broken leg. The passer from Oregon is entering his third year in the league and now has his best cast around him. It is a speculative bet but he has a weak division that could see him in the play-offs, whilst putting up good rushing and passing numbers.

Michael Thomas @16/1 to have most receiving yards – I backed him for this last week @25/1 and was far more excited. He is entering his second year and is fully entrenched as Drew Brees’ number 1 target. 1300 yards will be no problem, and something in the range of 1500-1600 is definitely manageable, he’s a sneaky bet to lead the league.

Justin Tucker @8/1 for most kicking points – At this stage he is the Ravens offence

I don’t like posting this one but….

John Fox first coach fired @10/1 – He definitely won’t be there next year, heck they wouldn’t even tell him they were drafting a qb until they did. I can see the Bears being 0-8 going into their bye and Fox being shown the door.

Hopefully during the season I’ll be back here looking at betting propositions for each weekend, advising more detailed spending.

This OTI ireland piece was written by Denis Kelly. Denis is a suffering Detroit Lions fan, and can be found on twitter @Deniskelly_real

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